Are You Ready for the Supreme Court’s Tariff Decision?
A major Supreme Court decision is looming that could dramatically alter how tariffs are imposed in the United States. The case challenges whether the emergency authority used by the Trump administration to impose Section 301 tariffs was legal. And depending on how the Court rules, the impact on wholesalers could be enormous.
Prediction markets recently estimated a 76% chance the Supreme Court will deem those emergency tariffs unlawful.
If that happens, wholesalers who import goods from China and other tariff-affected regions could see:
· A temporary window of lower import costs as existing tariffs are struck down
· A scramble by the current administration to impose new tariffs via a legally valid process
· A brief but critical opportunity to bring in goods at significantly lower landed costs
And there’s more.
Those same markets predict a 57% chance that the Court will go a step further and require the government to issue refunds on previously paid tariffs.
So the question is: Are you ready?
Here’s what smart wholesalers should be doing now—before the ruling drops.
1. Know Your Cost of Goods—With and Without Tariffs
Run the numbers. If the existing tariffs are removed: - What does that do to your landed cost per unit? - How quickly could you react to place orders before new tariffs kick in?
Pull a clean report from your ERP or accounting system that shows: - Item-level landed costs - HTS codes and countries of origin - Historical duty rates vs. current tariff-adjusted rates
This isn’t just helpful for procurement—it’s essential for understanding your costing and potential opportunities.
2. Prepare for a Tariff-Free Window
If the Court strikes down the tariffs, there may be a brief period where you can bring goods in without those extra duties—before new ones are imposed.
Think strategically: - Are there products you could front-load? – Will the Chinese New Year impact your ability to bring in goods? -Can your supplier ramp up quickly? - Do you have the financing lined up to make a move?
3. Prep Your Data for Potential Refund Claims
If refunds become available, only the companies who are ready will benefit. That means: - Extracting detailed import data since the original tariff imposition date (HTS codes, entry dates, duty paid) - Identifying differences between tariffed and non-tariffed landed costs - Consulting a broker or trade attorney to ensure you’re eligible and timely
Even if refunds are a long shot, the cost of preparing now is low, and the upside could be huge.
4. Reach Out to Your Broker or Trade Counsel—Now
Don’t wait for the Court to rule before you get in touch with your customs broker or legal team. - Are they tracking this case? - Would they be positioned to file a refund or reconsideration request on your behalf? - Do they know your products and tariff history well enough to act fast?
Once the decision is made, the firms who handle these filings will be slammed. Get in early.
5. Consider Your Strategy for Refund Rights
Some companies are already exploring options to sell their potential refund rights to legal or financial intermediaries, either now or after the ruling.
If you’re facing cash flow constraints—or want to reduce uncertainty—this might be worth exploring. Just be sure you understand the terms and opportunity cost.
Conclusion:
The Supreme Court decision could reshape your entire cost structure, refund your past tariffs, or both. Whether you’re hoping to take advantage of a tariff-free window—or position for a refund claim—the key is advance preparation.
Don’t wait for the headlines.
Start gathering your data. Talk to your broker. Know your numbers.
Because when the ruling hits, those who are ready will move fastest—and save the most.